JPY Crosses Coming Back
    Investors reduced short JPY positions as the Japanese Ministry of Finance suggested that the market should be aware of one-way bets against the currency.
    Another day with lack of interesting data, the USDJPY and otherJPY-related crosses fell dramatically after the Japanese Minister of Finance warned investors against betting one way against the Japanese currency. In our mind this is another warning from the Bank of Japan that the normalisation of interest rates is getting closer. In recent weeks, we have seen Fujii commenting over and over again that the "currencies should reflect economic fundamentals" which we interpret in the same way, hence we are getting closer to a rate hike cycle, but the iniation of the rate hike cycle will not commence yet. Considering the recent data from Japan, inflation has not yet been able to pick up and we remain with the view that unless we see rising inflation, the Bank of Japan will not start their monetary tightening. With risk aversion picking up in the market however, we see this as the main factor for today's sell-off in USDJPY, EURJPY etc.
    With regards to USD-crosses, we still think that USD-weakness is the theme, which should trigger further upward movement in GBPUSD and EURUSD. In EURUSD, we are buying the break of 1.3476 bid, stop offer at 1.3453 targeting 1.3550.

    日元配对面临回归
    今天依然缺乏数据，由于日本财政部暗示市场应警惕日元单边下跌的风险，投资者开始减少做空日元的头寸。在我们看来，这已经是日本央行的第二次警告。在最近几周，日本财务省次官Fujii反复强调，货币走势应该反映经济的基本面状况。因此我们觉得现在面临一个加息周期。不过日本近期的数据并没有显示出通胀增长的态势，除非通胀出现增长，否则央行尚不会采取继续收紧的货币政策。尽管如此，回避风险的投资者成为今天做空美元/日元，欧元/日元的主要动力。
    我们觉得美元的弱势仍然是目前的主题，这也会继续推动欧元/美元和英镑/美元继续走高。如果突破1.3476的话可以做多，止损在1.3453，目标在1.3550。